• 2.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.2 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
• +0.8 opponent leak — they concede 117.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −0.0 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.