• 5.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.8 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.7
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 87/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −1.5 at this ground — averages 4.2 there (53 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 11 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.