• 1.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.1
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 54.9/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 2.7 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.