• 8.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.9 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.5
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 219.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −2.0 at this ground — averages 6.1 there (23 gm)
• vs them: averages 10.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.