• 6.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.3
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 101.3/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −1.0 at this ground — averages 5.1 there (51 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.