• 3.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.3 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.5
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 49/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (48 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.