• 3.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.6
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 148.3/game vs a 155.4 league average
• vs them: averages 3.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.