• 0.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 12.5/game vs a 12.2 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (67 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.7 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.