• 3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.1 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.2
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 219.6/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 3.9 there (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.