• 1.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.3 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 51/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 1.7 there (30 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.