• 4.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.1 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.9
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 158.8/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +1.7 at this ground — averages 5.7 there (40 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.