• 3.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.8 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.1
• −0.8 opponent leak — they concede 9.6/game vs a 12.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 2.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.