• 3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.2 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.1
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 38/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.9 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (84 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.1 over 12 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.