• 9.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.6
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 164/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +1.0 at this ground — averages 10.8 there (70 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.9 over 12 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 18 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.