• 5.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.9 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.8
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 88/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −1.3 at this ground — averages 3.9 there (46 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.