• 4.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.8
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 32.7/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −2.9 at this ground — averages 1.8 there (15 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.1 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.