• 3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.8 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.6
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 55.5/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.9 at this ground — averages 2.3 there (59 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.