• 8.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.1 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.4
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 210.3/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −1.5 at this ground — averages 7.3 there (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 23: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.