• 4.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.8
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 93.2/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −2.0 at this ground — averages 2.8 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 9: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.