• 33.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 32.2 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 34.5
• −6.0 opponent leak — they concede 28.9/game vs a 35.3 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 32.3 there (86 gm)
• vs them: averages 31.6 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 58 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.