• 2.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.5 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 87/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 3 there (12 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.