• 5.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.3
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 164.6/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 4.5 there (51 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.