• 2.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.9 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 88.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +1.4 wet forecast — averages 4.3 in the wet (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.