• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 14.9/game vs a 12.8 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 1 there (24 gm)
• +0.5 wet forecast — averages 1.3 in the wet (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.