• 29.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 29.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 29.4
• −1.9 opponent leak — they concede 345.4/game vs a 369 league average
• −6.8 at this ground — averages 22.5 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 22.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.