• 3.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.7 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 92/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +1.5 at this ground — averages 4.7 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.