• 1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 33.9/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 1.2 there (11 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Preliminary Finals: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.