• 0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 7.7/game vs a 9.4 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (29 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.