• 10.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.2 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.3
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 148.3/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −3.3 at this ground — averages 6.9 there (29 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.