• 5.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.4 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
• +0.4 opponent leak — they concede 100.5/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −1.9 at this ground — averages 3.4 there (11 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.