• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 33.1/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +3.6 at this ground — averages 4.8 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.