• 5.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.6 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.6
• +0.6 opponent leak — they concede 104/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 5.1 there (15 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.