• 3.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.1 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.3
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 88.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 3.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.