• 1.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 88.8/game vs a 93.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.