• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 11.4/game vs a 9.4 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 0.7 there (85 gm)
• −0.4 wet forecast — averages 0.8 in the wet (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.