• 2.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.1
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 35.2/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 2 there (16 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.