• 22.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 23.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 22.2
• +1.2 opponent leak — they concede 389.2/game vs a 369 league average
• +1.4 at this ground — averages 24.2 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 16.3 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.