from 21.2 baseline, +2.6 at this ground

• 21.2 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• −0.7 opponent leak — they concede 356.7/game vs a 368.4 league average
• +2.6 at this ground — averages 23 there against his own 20.5 in those same seasons — 112% of his own level (41 gm)
• +2.1 wet forecast — averages 23.9 in the wet against his own 21.6 in those same seasons — 110% of his own level (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 21.4 over 5 games — 96% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.