from 6.0 baseline, +1.5 at this ground

• 6.0 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• −0.6 opponent leak — they concede 82.8/game vs a 92.4 league average
• +1.5 at this ground — averages 6 there against his own 3.9 in those same seasons — 162% of his own level (41 gm) · held at the ceiling one adjustment is allowed; the raw effect over this sample was larger
• −1.3 wet forecast — averages 4.5 in the wet against his own 5.5 in those same seasons — 78% of his own level (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.6 over 5 games — 71% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.