from 11.3 baseline, +2.5 at this ground

• 11.3 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 205.4/game vs a 213 league average
• +2.5 at this ground — averages 11.3 there against his own 9.6 in those same seasons — 122% of his own level (41 gm)
• +0.1 wet forecast — averages 10.9 in the wet against his own 10.7 in those same seasons — 101% of his own level (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.8 over 5 games — 71% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.