• 4.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 164/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +1.4 at this ground — averages 6.3 there (4 gm)
• −0.4 wet forecast — averages 4.5 in the wet (18 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.6 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 10 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.