• 1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 29.9/game vs a 35.3 league average
• −0.9 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (24 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.