• 10.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.9 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 10.9
• −1.0 opponent leak — they concede 141.4/game vs a 155.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.