• 11.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.9 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.1
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 367.1/game vs a 369 league average
• +4.1 at this ground — averages 15.5 there (24 gm)
• vs them: averages 18.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 19 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.