• 10.1 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 211.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +1.2 at this ground — averages 11.3 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 13.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.