• 7.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.8 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 7.8
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 367.1/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 7.3 there (4 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 13 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.