• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 38.4/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (48 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 13: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.