• 10.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.2
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 219.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 10.5 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 10.3 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.