• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.3 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 31.2/game vs a 35.3 league average
• +0.4 at this ground — averages 1.5 there (11 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.