• 4.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.6
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 157.2/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 4.6 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.4 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.